大多数专家认为,越来越多的国家和恐怖组织会在技术上具备获得并使用生化武器的能力。但敌对国家或恐怖组织使用这些武器的情况并不是不可避免的。即使在血淋淋的常规战争中打得难分难解,那些动过念头的国家也不敢轻易使用这些武器,他们担心敌人会以牙还牙地报复或在其他地方

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问题     大多数专家认为,越来越多的国家和恐怖组织会在技术上具备获得并使用生化武器的能力。但敌对国家或恐怖组织使用这些武器的情况并不是不可避免的。即使在血淋淋的常规战争中打得难分难解,那些动过念头的国家也不敢轻易使用这些武器,他们担心敌人会以牙还牙地报复或在其他地方使战斗升级激化。而对恐怖组织来说,有技术能力的往往缺乏使用的兴趣,对生化武器有兴趣的却又缺乏必要的技术能力。
    然而,评估未来的危险不能简单地从过去推知。敌对国家及恐怖组织使用生化武器的可能性在不断增加,而且毫无保护的人群哪怕遭受一次这样的袭击,其后果也显然是毁灭性的。

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答案 Most experts believe that an ever-increasing number of countries and terrorist groups will gain the technical capability to acquire and use chemical and biological weapons. But use of these weapons by hostile states or terrorist groups is not inevitable. Even when locked in bloody conventional wars, nations that have considered using these weapons have generally been deterred by the risk that their opponents would retaliate in kind or escalate the conflict elsewhere. Terrorist groups with the technical capacity to acquire and use a chemical or biological weapon have typically lacked an interest in doing so, while groups interested in such weapons have generally lacked the necessary technical skills. Assessing future threats, however, involves more than simple extrapolation from past trends. In the case of chemical and biological weapons, it appears that the likelihood of use by both hostile states and terrorist groups is growing, and it is clear that even one such attack against an unprotected population could be devastating.

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