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  3. Forty years ago Singapore, now home to the world’s busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961

Forty years ago Singapore, now home to the world’s busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961

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问题     Forty years ago Singapore, now home to the world’s busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961 South Korea was less industrialized than the North and dependent on American aid. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to "export fatalism". Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their commodities.
    The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of "export-led growth", which served countries like South Korea so well. Under this strategy, sometimes called "export fetishism" , countries spur sales abroad, often by keeping their currencies cheap. Some save the proceeds in foreign-currency reserves, rather than spending them on imports. This strategy is one reason why the developing world’s current-account surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country’s financial crisis.
    If this global bargain does come unstuck, how should developing countries respond? In a new paper, Dani Rodrik of Harvard University offers a novel suggestion. He argues that developing countries should continue to promote exportables, but no longer promote exports. What’s the difference? An exportable is a good that could be traded across borders, but need not be. Mr Rodrik’s recommended policies would help countries make more of these exportables, without selling quite so many abroad.
    Countries grow by shifting labour and investment from traditional activities, where productivity is stagnant, to new industries, which abound in economies of scale or opportunities to assimilate better techniques. These new industries usually make exportable goods, such as cotton textiles or toys. But whatever the fetishists believe, there is nothing special about the act of exporting itself, Mr. Rodrik argues. For example, companies do not need to venture abroad to feel the bracing sting of international competition. If their products can be traded across borders, then foreign rivals can compete with them at home.
    As countries industrialize and diversify, their exports grow, which sometimes results in a trade surplus. These three things tend to go together. But in a statistical "horse race" between the three—industrialization, exports and exports minus imports—Mr. Rodrik finds that it is the growth of tradable, industrial goods, as a share of GDP, that does most of the work.  
According to the last paragraph, "a statistical horse race" most probably means
选项 A、a comparison in statistics.
B、a horse competition.
C、an index of sports industry.
D、a race of mathematics.
答案A
解析 语义理解题。由题干关键词定位至第五段。解答此题的关键在于对horse race的理解。由原文可推知，此处并非指真正的赛马，而是关于数据方面的，由此可以引申为“比赛”，即数据比赛或对比，[A]与之相符，故为正确答案。[B]“赛马比赛”、[C]“体育产业指数”和[D]“数学比赛”都与原文中上下文的含义不符，故均排除。
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