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  3. The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

admin2013-01-10  41
问题                 The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity
    Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, but not as rapidly. Consumer confidence is up. Banks are earning money. The stock market in April had its best month in nine years. Even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known for his dire (极糟糕的) economic predictions, thinks we are on the mend. Sort of.
    That’s not to say the recession is over. Roubini sees the road to recovery as a long and fluctuating one, with unemployment rising toward 12%. So don’t trade in your emergency fund for a boat. But when it comes to your investing life, it’s time to get backing to the water. And the question is: How do we ever get back the money we lost?
    It depends on what type of recovery we have. Since the market bottomed on March 9, investors have rushed into acquiring shares of financial companies, retailers and technology firms. That makes sense if you believe we will have a recovery like the ones we’ve had in recent history. Companies in those industries did well in the market rallies (恢复) that followed recessions in the 1990s and the early part of this decade. And stocks handily outperformed (胜过) bonds.
    But the current recession has been deeper and longer than the past two. "It’s a very different story today," says First Eagle’s Jean-Marie Eveillard, one of the few managers to produce positive returns when stocks plunged earlier this decade. "The landscape is different, and the recovery, when it comes, probably won’t be along the lines of what we have seen in the post-World War II period." For the past few decades, the easiest call in economics was to predict a V-shaped recession—one that bottoms and rebounds quickly, it’s basically all we’ve had. Only two of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II have lasted more than a year, and nearly all wound up with a boom. Consumers stocked up. Companies upgraded their computers. We piled into real estate. And predicting a V may be the right call a gain. With the government spending billions on economic stimulus—trillions, if you include the bank fix—a quick pullout is entirely possible. In that case, buying retailers, technology companies and financial firms makes sense.
    But at 16 months and counting, this recession looks more and more U-like—one in which a rebound takes time. That’s the picture Roubini is painting. He says no, amount of government stimulus can make us shoppers again—we have too much debt. When paychecks resume or start to grow again, lenders will get that cash, not retailers. Consumer spending made up as much as 70% of the economy before the bust. With less shopping, Roubini says, there is little chance for a quick rebound.
Why can’t retail industry quickly make money after the recession bottomed according to Roubini?
选项 A、Because the government is not spending enough on stimulus.
B、Because people will pay their money back to their lenders.
C、Because the current recession is U-shaped rather than V.
D、Because consuming made up too much of the economy before the recession.
答案B
解析 事实细节题。文章最后一段第四句指出：即使人们的工资提高了，也是债主得到这些钱，而不是零售商，意即人们的钱要用来还债而不是消费，[B]与文意相符。本段第三句指出：罗比尼认为，不论政府花多少钱来刺激经济也无法使我们成为购物者，因为我们的债务太巨大了，所以并不是政府投资不够，而是要还的债务太多了，故排除[A]；[C]弄错了因果关系，是因为债务负担过重使得经济衰退呈现出U形，而不是U形衰退导致了零售业不能快速恢复，故排除；消费占经济总量的比例过大并不是导致零售业即使在经济触底之后仍不能赚钱的原因，而是导致整体经济由于零售业的不景气而不能快速恢复的原因。故排除[D]。
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