首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
Science, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion.【F1】For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject
Science, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion.【F1】For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject
admin
2015-09-30
36
问题
Science, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion.【F1】
For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject of probability theory was an English clergyman called Thomas Bayes, who was born in 1702 and died in 1761.
His ideas about the prediction of future events from one or two examples were popular for a while, and have never been fundamentally challenged.【F2】
But they were eventually overwhelmed by those of the "frequentist" school, which developed the methods based on sampling from a large population that now dominate the field and are used to predict things as diverse as the outcomes of elections and preferences for chocolate bars.
Recently, however, Bayes’s ideas have made a comeback among computer scientists trying to design software with human like intelligence. Bayesian reasoning now lies at the heart of leading internet search engines and automated "help wizards". That has prompted some psychologists to ask if the human brain itself might be a Bayesian-reasoning machine.【F3】
They suggest that the Bayesian capacity to draw strong inferences from sparse data could be crucial to the way the mind perceives the world, plans actions, comprehends and learns language, reasons from correlation to causation, and even understands the goals and beliefs of other minds.
【F4】
These researchers have conducted laboratory experiments that convince them they are on the right track, but only recently have they begun to look at whether the brain copes with everyday judgments in the real world in a Bayesian manner.
In research to be published later this year in Psychological Science , Thomas Griffiths of Brown University in Rhode Island and Joshua Tenenbaum of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology put the idea of a Bayesian brain to a quotidian test. They found that it passes with flying colours.
The key to successful Bayesian reasoning is not in having an extensive, unbiased sample, which is the eternal worry of frequentists, but rather in having an appropriate "prior", as it is known to the cognoscenti.【F5】
This prior is an assumption about the way the world works—in essence, a hypothesis about reality—that can be expressed as a mathematical probability distribution of the frequency with which events of a particular magnitude happen.
【F2】
选项
答案
但是,“频率论”学派的想法最终压倒了贝叶斯的想法。“频率论”学派研究出以在大群体中取样为基础的方法。“频率论”学派的方法如今主宰了这个领域,被用来预测各种不同的事物,比如,选举结果,以及对不同巧克力块的偏爱程度等。
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://jikaoti.com/ti/OSe7FFFM
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
TheauthorgivestheexampleofatollgateinthefirstparagraphtoindicatethatItcanbeinferredfromthepassagethatthe
TheauthorgivestheexampleofatollgateinthefirstparagraphtoindicatethatWhatisthe"mainquestionforthepoor"(Li
Itishardtopredicthowscienceisgoingtoturnout,andifitisreallygoodscienceitisimpossibletopredict.Ifthethi
Somesaythatoneofthemaindifferencesbetweenscienceandphilosophyisthatsciencemakesprogresswhilephilosophersgoro
______theclaimaboutGermaneconomicmight,itissomewhatsurprisinghowrelativelysmalltheGermaneconomyactuallyis.
Whatimpactcanmobilephoneshaveontheirusers’health?Manypeopleworryaboutthesupposedilleffectscausedbyradiation
Whatimpactcanmobilephoneshaveontheirusers’health?Manypeopleworryaboutthesupposedilleffectscausedbyradiation
All______isacontinuoussupplyofthebasicnecessitiesoflife.
Longbeforetheneweconomymadecatchwordsofspeed,customization,supplychainmanagement,andinformationsharing,Spanishc
Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoil
随机试题
—Iheardthatsomepolicedidn’tallowsuspectsenoughsleeptogetso-calledcriminalevidenceinAmerica.—______?Thiscert
A.门静脉海绵样变B.巴德一吉亚利综合征C.肝包虫病D.血吸虫病E.原发性肝癌属于肝前型门脉高压症的疾病是
类风湿关节炎的主要表现是
支配虹膜环形肌的是()
下列说法错误的是:()
我国发行的债券目前主要偿还方式是采用( )。
以下是某求助者与咨询师的谈话,请据此回答问题:心理咨询师:你最近有什么烦心的事情吗?想和我交流一下吗?我是一个职业的心理咨询师,我会为我们今天的谈话保密的。求助者:最近一个月一直心情低落,上班时无精打采的,也不想和同事们来往,厌食,失眠
()不是人力资源开发目标的特性。
传统节日有了法定假期,未必就不会渐行渐远。一个古老节日之所以沿袭不衰,真正动因不在于它有多热闹、能带来多少商机,而在于它承载着中国人代代积累下来的那份感情,流淌着中华民族赖以生存繁衍的精神血脉和文化基因。如今社会进步,经济发展,人们对传统节日有了更高的要求
毛泽东提出的具有中国特点的民主革命道路理论初步形成的标志是
最新回复
(
0
)