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  3. The costs associated with natural disasters are increasing rapidly. As a result, officials in government and industry have focus

The costs associated with natural disasters are increasing rapidly. As a result, officials in government and industry have focus

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问题     The costs associated with natural disasters are increasing rapidly. As a result, officials in government and industry have focused more attention on disasters and their effects. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy has estimated that disasters cost the country about 1 billion per week. Hurricane Andrew, the Midwest flood of 1993, and the Hanshin earthquake have shown that individual disasters can cost tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars. This increasing cost has resulted in greater funding from government and industry for the development of technologies related to disaster prediction, and has led to more research into the effective use of predictive information.
    The insurance industry has long been aware of the dangers of natural disasters; the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, California, bankrupted scores of insurance companies. But the industry has focused particular attention on disaster prediction in recent years, as spiraling costs revealed that many companies had underestimated their financial exposure. For instance, prior to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, many insurance experts thought that the worst hurricane possible would do no more than 8 billion in damages to the industry. The damages caused by Hurricane Andrew, estimated at about 17 billion, shattered these beliefs. Today, estimates of worst-case disaster scenarios approach 100 billion.
    The insurance industry has therefore increased its support for research into disaster prediction. One such effort involves a number of companies that have joined together to support the Bermuda-based Risk Prediction Initiative, which funds disaster research. The expectation is that the resulting information will place the industry on a more solid foundation to make decisions about the risk of future disasters. The industry has also lobbied for the government to bear some of the financial burden of disaster insurance. Such a program already exists for flood insurance, set up in the late 1960s by the federal government to insure flood-prone areas. These types of programs, effectively implemented, could be increasingly necessary in the future to make insurance available in areas prone to disasters.
    Because the stakes are so high, the science of disaster prediction has a bright future. The various projects and programs illustrate that disaster prediction is a topic of concern to scientists and policy makers alike. Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes all show that the effective use of disaster predictions not only requires advanced technology but also requires that society consider the entire process of prediction—forecasts, communication, and use of information. Because they cannot predict the future with certainty, and because much remains to be learned, scientists warn that society must understand the limits of scientific predictions and be prepared to employ alternatives. Wisely used, however, disaster prediction has the potential to reduce society’s vulnerability to natural disasters.
The key factor to reduce society’s vulnerability to natural disasters is________.
选项 A、insurance companies should be wise enough in their estimates of losses
B、the government should bear some of the financial risks of disaster insurance
C、the general public should be made fully aware of the possible damages
D、technology should be improved and three phases of prediction be considered
答案D
解析 本题关键词是society’s vulnerability和natural disasters，问题是：面对自然灾害时，降低社会损失的关键因素是什么?答案可以定位到第四段。从第四段第三句话可知，灾害预测的有效使用不仅需要先进技术(advanced technology)，还需要社会考虑整个预测过程——预报、通讯、信息的使用(forecasts，communication，and use of information)，选项D中的three phases of prediction指的就是原文的预报、通信、信息的使用 (forecasts，communication，and use of information)这三个预测过程，因此选项D属于全面概括，为正确答案。文中没有提到保险公司应该足够明智这个观点，所以选项A属于主观推导。根据第三段第四句话，保险业游说政府(government)为灾难保险承担一部分经济负担(bear some of the financial burden)，但这并不是降低社会损失的关键因素，所以选项B属于答非所问。根据第四段第四句话可知，人类社会(society)必须理解科学预测的局限性(the limits of scientific predictions)，并不是选项C提到的全面了解可能受到的损失(fully aware of the possible damages)，所以选项C属于无中生有。第四段：灾难预测科学的前途一片光明。
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