首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
【F1】When Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize-winning economist, clashed with Niall Ferguson, a famous historian, over how best to respon
【F1】When Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize-winning economist, clashed with Niall Ferguson, a famous historian, over how best to respon
admin
2013-09-16
34
问题
【F1】
When Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize-winning economist, clashed with Niall Ferguson, a famous historian, over how best to respond to the economic crisis,Prof Ferguson’s response was humorously humble.
"A cat may look at a king," he wrote, "and sometimes a historian can challenge an economist. "
There has been some self-examination and soul-searching within the economics profession since the onset of the financial crisis.【F2】
Joseph Stiglitz, another Nobel prize-winning economist, has suggested that: "If science is defined by its ability to forecast the future, the failure of much of the economics profession to see the crisis coming should be a cause of great concern. "
Yet Prof Stiglitz’s conclusion is disappointingly mild: economists must simply search for new "paradigms" and then presumably go back into the business of scientific prediction.
For somebody educated as a historian, there is an obvious alternative conclusion to draw from Prof Stiglitz’s opening observation. And that is to conclude that the entire attempt to treat economics as a "science .. . defined by its ability to forecast the future" is misconceived.【F3】
The late Geoffrey Elton, a professor of modern history at Cambridge, argued that the function of the historian was to concentrate on the particular and the specific and to puncture the pretensions of social scientists, with their constant and futile effort to derive general, predictive laws from the study of the past.
In the current intellectual climate, it seems that Elton was saying something important. He was defending the empirical method and setting boundaries for what can be expected from the study of the past. Historians know that their work cannot be used to predict the future. History can suggest lessons and parallels and provide wisdom—but what it cannot do is provide a sociological equivalent of the laws of physics. Yet this seems to be the aspiration of many economists, who notoriously suffer from "physics envy".
Yet economists seem unlikely to abandon the belief that theirs is a discipline that makes "progress" and settles issues, in a way that resembles a hard science such as physics or chemistry.【F4】
Ben Bernanke, the current head of the Federal Reserve, exemplified this belief in a famous speech in 2004 on the "Great Moderation", in which he argued that there had been a "substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility", largely because of improved monetary policy, based on advances in economic thinking.
The subsequent financial and economic crash may have dented the confidence of some economists in particular tenets of their discipline.【F5】
But the Great Recession seems unlikely to dissuade many economists from the more fundamental belief that there are, indeed, predictive "laws" out there, just waiting to be discovered.
Rather than seeking to ape physicists, however, perhaps it is time for economists to learn a few lessons from history, or more precisely from historians.
【F2】
选项
答案
另一位诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫?斯蒂格利茨表示:“如果界定科学的标准是其能够预测未来,那么经济学界多数人未能预见危机来临这个事实,应该引起极大关注。”
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://jikaoti.com/ti/ErYRFFFM
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
The"dawnofthedemocratizationoftheTVandfilmbusiness"probablymeans______.Itisimpliedinthetextthat______.
WhichofthefollowingreflectsthechangeofCatholicChurch?The"reconfigurationplan"(Para.4)probablyrefersto
Illiteracymaybeconsideredmoreasanabstractconceptthanacondition.WhenafamousEnglishwriterusedthe(1)_____overt
Illiteracymaybeconsideredmoreasanabstractconceptthanacondition.WhenafamousEnglishwriterusedthe(1)_____overt
Illiteracymaybeconsideredmoreasanabstractconceptthanacondition.WhenafamousEnglishwriterusedthe(1)_____overt
FIAwouldgiveitspartnertherighttostagetheracingtill______.WhichstatementisprobablyTRUE?
Theword"caste"(paragraph1)mostprobablymeansTheauthor’stoneintalkingaboutfireantsintheUSseemstobe
Modernliberalopinionissensitivetoproblemsofrestrictionoffreedomandabuseofpower.(1)_____,manyholdthatamancan
Modernliberalopinionissensitivetoproblemsofrestrictionoffreedomandabuseofpower.(1)_____,manyholdthatamancan
随机试题
影响难加工材料的铣削力因素不正确的是()。
症见胁肋隐痛,悠悠不休,遇劳加重,口干咽燥,心中烦热,头晕目眩,舌红少苔,脉细弦而数,宜选用
某起重机吊具如图所示,吊钩与吊板通过销轴连接,起吊力为F。已知:F=40kN。销轴直径d=22mm,吊钩厚度δ=20mm。销轴允许应力[τ]=60MPa,[σbs]=120MPa。则该连接处的强度为()。
现行财税制度规定,企业计提折旧一般采用()。
项目监理机构的内部管理制度包括()。
某软件公司规模不断发展壮大,员工人数已从原来的20多人增加到现在的400多人,但管理层却发现公司的工作效率明显地下降了,相同类型的项目,过去5个人1个月可以完成,而现在10个人1个月都完成不了。由于绩效降低,员工人心涣散。[2005年真题]该公司目前存
下列关于政府机关单位取得长期股权投资的初始计量,表述不正确的是()。
专业素质是文案撰稿人需具备的重要因素之一,下列各项中不属于专业素质的是()。
TheActspecifically______anycouncilfromspendingmoneyforpoliticalpurposes.
Infact,anumberofrecentdevelopmentssuggestthatnewmediamayactuallybethesalvationofoldmedia;thatonlinenewspape
最新回复
(
0
)