2. 外语
  3. The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University. "Last year the number of students who enrolled in

The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University. "Last year the number of students who enrolled in

admin2018-10-09  69
问题 The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because online instruction takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana University, we should initiate and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
选项
答案 In this argument, the author suggests that long-distance degree programs should be implemented and actively promoted in Humana University. To justify his or her recommendation, the author points out that the enrollment at Humana University has declined while the expense has ascended. On the contrary, Omni University, which has launched long-distance courses last year, saw a 50% increase in enrollment as well as a remarkable reduction in expenditures for classrooms and dormitories. This argument is obviously built upon several unsubstantiated assumptions, and thus, not strong enough to firmly justify a long-distance program in Humana University. To begin with, the implications of the statistics about the enrollment of Omni University are vague because the author assumes that a 50% increase is substantial. However, this number is open to different interpretation since the percentage of increase is a relative figure determined by the enrollment not only in that year but also a year before. We are not informed of the actual number of students who registered for the long-distance program at Omni University, so it remains unsolved whether there was a real significant growth in enrollment. If, for example, only a tiny number of students participated in those courses the year before last, the 50% increase might turn out to be insignificant. Therefore, unless more detailed information about the data is provided, it cannot be used to effectively sustain the author’s proposal. Granted that the statistics presented above does suggest a considerable increase in student enrollment, it’s unjustifiable for the author to assume that the policy adopted by Omni University could also lead to significant increase in student enrollment at Humana University. The reason is that without the information such as the reputation, location, faculty number and quality, available financial support and so on of the two universities, it is extremely questionable to rush to the conclusion that a distance degree programs can also achieve success at Humana University. For example, Omni University might probably rank among the top universities worldwide and enjoys a great reputation, while Humana University is just a low-ranking one only few have ever heard of. Few people would pay attention to or trust the long-distance program of Humana University in that case. Moreover, even if we concede that similar online program will attract more students to Humana, a concrete connection between the success of the online courses and the diminishment of the budget deficits is not convincingly established. In fact, launching such a program might be costly to the extent that Humana University’s budget deficit could worsen as a result. After all, setting up a new long-distance, online program involves installation of new equipment, constant maintenance, active advertising, etc. Here, the author assumes that the large expenditures invested towards the online program would be covered by the additional tuition fees from the increased enrollment thanks to the long-distance degree program. Nevertheless, this is not a conclusion that can be confidently reached from the existing information. If it turns out that the cost of a new online program substantially outweighs the potential revenue increase, the author’s recommendation will be much less persuasive. To sum up, this proposal relies upon a series of problematic and unproven assumptions, which, when prove unwarranted, would render the author’s conclusion less convincing. In order to fully evaluate whether a long-distance education program will succeed both in terms of student enrollment and of finance, a number of questions must be thoroughly investigated, including whether the purported success at Omni University is real, whether Humana can attract more students, and if it can, whether the cost of the online program will be smaller than the resultant increased revenue. (601 words)
解析     本文是题库当中的一道高频题目，其中的逻辑问题也是很经典的“类比论证”，也即：一个政策和措施在别的地方看起来取得了成功，因而建议把这一套做法拿到本地来实施。其简要的逻辑框架如下所示：
    (Omni线上招生增长50％+Omni教室和宿舍成本下降)→互联网教育减少了成本+Humana大学入学人数不多，建筑物维修成本上升→Humana也应采用互联网教育
    对于这一类论证而言，我们可以思考三个方面的问题：第一，所谓的成功是真正的成功吗?第二，就算真的成功了，我们可以把原因归为题目中所说的政策吗?第三，就算政策真是有效的，在别处成功的经验可否复制到本地?这一套逻辑可以适用于几乎所有类比论证的Argument题目，大家可以将这种模板记在心中。
    对于本题来说，50％的增长真的是巨大的进步吗?这是可以讨论的第一点。然后就算招生人数真的代表了Omni大学的成就，这是不是因为互联网教育的缘故呢?这一点没有在文章中写出，但也许Omni除了网络教育之外还采取了一些新的政策，例如更多的奖学金等，这才使得招生数量上升。再者，就算Omni成功了，这一策略也不一定适用于Humana，因为两者不一定具备可比性。
    当然，在本题中我们选择了上面的第一和第三点进行分析，而在后续论证过程中增加了一段关于成本和收益的考虑。之所以这么写，是因为题目最终落足于“减少Humana大学的财政赤字”这一点上。作者认为，通过开启线上课程可减少宿舍和教室的支出，但是作者没有考虑这个线上项目本身也是需要开支的，如果这部分的成本高于减少的支出，那么最终从预算来看是得不偿失的。
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