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  3. The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

admin2013-01-10  19
问题                 The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity
    Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, but not as rapidly. Consumer confidence is up. Banks are earning money. The stock market in April had its best month in nine years. Even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known for his dire (极糟糕的) economic predictions, thinks we are on the mend. Sort of.
    That’s not to say the recession is over. Roubini sees the road to recovery as a long and fluctuating one, with unemployment rising toward 12%. So don’t trade in your emergency fund for a boat. But when it comes to your investing life, it’s time to get backing to the water. And the question is: How do we ever get back the money we lost?
    It depends on what type of recovery we have. Since the market bottomed on March 9, investors have rushed into acquiring shares of financial companies, retailers and technology firms. That makes sense if you believe we will have a recovery like the ones we’ve had in recent history. Companies in those industries did well in the market rallies (恢复) that followed recessions in the 1990s and the early part of this decade. And stocks handily outperformed (胜过) bonds.
    But the current recession has been deeper and longer than the past two. "It’s a very different story today," says First Eagle’s Jean-Marie Eveillard, one of the few managers to produce positive returns when stocks plunged earlier this decade. "The landscape is different, and the recovery, when it comes, probably won’t be along the lines of what we have seen in the post-World War II period." For the past few decades, the easiest call in economics was to predict a V-shaped recession—one that bottoms and rebounds quickly, it’s basically all we’ve had. Only two of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II have lasted more than a year, and nearly all wound up with a boom. Consumers stocked up. Companies upgraded their computers. We piled into real estate. And predicting a V may be the right call a gain. With the government spending billions on economic stimulus—trillions, if you include the bank fix—a quick pullout is entirely possible. In that case, buying retailers, technology companies and financial firms makes sense.
    But at 16 months and counting, this recession looks more and more U-like—one in which a rebound takes time. That’s the picture Roubini is painting. He says no, amount of government stimulus can make us shoppers again—we have too much debt. When paychecks resume or start to grow again, lenders will get that cash, not retailers. Consumer spending made up as much as 70% of the economy before the bust. With less shopping, Roubini says, there is little chance for a quick rebound.
What is Professor Roubini’s view on the present recession?
选项 A、People should invest in stocks rather than bonds.
B、it’s experiencing steady and quick recovery.
C、Unemployment is still on the way up.
D、Buying retailers makes sense at present.
答案C
解析 推理判断题。由题干中的Roubini’s view定位到第二段第二句Roubini sees the road to recovery as a long and fluctuating one，with unemployment rising toward 12％．可知，随着失业率将升至12％，罗比尼认为经济复苏的道路漫长而又起伏不定，由此我们推断失业率仍然在上升，故[C]正确。而[B]与本句意思不符，故排除；作者在第三段最后指出，在以前经济衰退之后股票收益总是会比证券好。但是在文章的最后一段罗比尼对当前经济衰退的判断是与以往任何时候都不同，是一个U形衰退，这就意味着我们不能再遵循以前的规律了，故排除[A]；在最后一段罗比尼指出，当前的政府刺激方案无法使经济循序恢复，即使人们挣到了钱也只会用来还债，而不是去消费。由此我们判断零售业不会在短时间内恢复，故投资零售商并不是好的做法，因此排除[D]。
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