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  3. The volcanic eruptions in Iceland, seismic (地震的) devastation in Samoa, Sumatra, Haiti and Chile. All within six months. The publ

The volcanic eruptions in Iceland, seismic (地震的) devastation in Samoa, Sumatra, Haiti and Chile. All within six months. The publ

admin2012-04-09  41
问题     The volcanic eruptions in Iceland, seismic (地震的) devastation in Samoa, Sumatra, Haiti and Chile. All within six months. The public perception could easily be that we are undergoing a peak in global seismic activity, but the science suggests otherwise. During some periods, purely by chance, clusters of seismic events occur close together, in the same way that grains of sand bunch together if scattered on a smooth surface. But the number of events during the past year is not even above average. According to records dating back to 1900, we expect about 17 major earthquakes (between 7. 0 and 7. 9 magnitude) and one great earthquake (8. 0 or above) in any given year. Last year one surpassed 8.0 and 16 between 7.0 and 7.9—an almost perfectly average year. Volcano activity is also well within the normal range.
    What has changed dramatically is the numbers of people being killed. As the world’s population continues to grow exponentially (增长迅猛地) ， people in the world’s poorest regions are being forced to live in more and more marginal places. Whereas once a major tremor (震动) or eruption would kill the unlucky few living in the vicinity, now whole cities are built along fault lines. Between 1980 and 1989 almost 59 000 people died in earthquakes. By the next decade, this had grown to 115 000 people and between 2000 and 2010 further increased to 689 000. Just this year 223 142 have died.
    "I expect that in my lifetime I’ll see an earthquake kill a million people. Many seismologists believe this will happen," said Professor John McCloskey, a geophysicist at the University of Ulster. Dr. Christopher Kilburn, a geophysical hazards specialist at University College London sees a comparable situation for volcanoes. "Cities in these areas have grown. The chances are that in the future something will happen that will affect tens of thousands of people," he said.
    With advances in computer simulations, and a wealth of data from more than 8 000 seismological stations, scientists are better placed than ever to predict where seismic events will strike next. Many are working with aid agencies to identify the places most at risk and attempt to make changes to their infrastructure.
    Several locations are believed to be particularly at risk. Earth scientists expect a great earthquake to strike in Sumatra. And the one that hit Padang, in September last year killing more than 1 000 people was not it—on the contrary it may have only served to make the next massive earthquake more likely. The last major shock happened more than 200 years ago and the stresses are probably larger now than they were then. Istanbul is another worry. Scientists have estimated a 60 per cent chance of a massive earthquake within 30 years. Tehran and a large stretch of North India falling on the Himalayan front have also been identified as red-alert zones by seismologists.
What will happen in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions according to John McCloskey and Christopher Kilburn?
选项 A、Fatalities will grow.
B、The intensity will aggravate.
C、Forecast can be an uphill struggle.
D、Preventive measures are needed.
答案A
解析 推理判断题。本段承接第二段阐述关于地震中丧生的人数。而根据John教授和Christopher博士所说推断，会发生更大强度的地震和火山爆发，影响上万人甚至上百万人的生命，因此答案为A)“伤亡人数会增长”。
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