首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed. It’s important not to make too much out of a singl
Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed. It’s important not to make too much out of a singl
admin
2021-10-13
29
问题
Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed. It’s important not to make too much out of a single economic data point. But Friday’s monthly jobs report may be even better news than it seems. The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November, and companies only shed 11,000 payroll jobs in the month. That was much better than economists expected, and the smallest such drop since late 2007, and perhaps early indication that, as I’ve argued, we’ll be seeing jobs growth sooner rather than later. A look inside the report - and, again, with the caveat that it would be folly to draw too strong a conclusion from a single month’s data -suggests four other reasons to be optimistic.
The payroll jobs number in November came in much better than expected. In each monthly report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revises the previously reported job totals for the prior two months. And in the past few months, the trend has been that the government overstates the job market’s weakness in the just-completed month. In the original release for September, the government concluded the economy shed 263,000 jobs that month. A month later, however, in its October release, September’s loss was revised down to 219,000. According to last Friday’s release, the September job loss was actually only 139,000. The government originally said the economy lost 190,000 jobs in October, but Friday’s report cut that number to only 111,000 jobs. The upshot: for the past three months, the government’s first task at job loss figures has been understating the strength of the recovery. Should this trend continue, it’s quite likely that when the November numbers are revised over the next two months, that 11,000 loss could turn into a gain.
Analysts frequently point to the troubling losses in manufacturing, housing, and construction. It’s understandable, since those sectors are politically important (manufacturing) and accounted for so much of recent economic growth (housing/construction). But manufacturing jobs are likely to fall even as the economy recovers, thanks to long-term secular trends of globalization, outsourcing, and automation. As for housing, we shouldn’t expect the sector that got us into the mess to get us out of it. Rather, the recovery will come from the vast services sector. Those sectors—which include government, health care, and education—account for about 86 percent of total payroll jobs. In the October report, BLS reported that the economy lost 61,000 service jobs. But the November report revised that loss to a gain of 2,000 October service jobs and found that the sector added 58,000 service jobs in November. That’s two straight months of growth. What’s more, the professional- and business-services sectors—purely private-sector service jobs—were up 86,000 in November and were revised to show a gain of 38,000 in October.
The economy started growing this summer. But it frequently takes a few quarters of sustained growth until businesses and consumers really trust it. During these periods, employers go through a predictable process. When business stabilizes, they stop firing lots of workers. When demands and orders pick up, rather than hire, they prod existing workers to work harder and invest in productivity-enhancing technology and processes. That’s why the productivity numbers have been so impressive in the past six months. When things continue to improve, they still don’t quite believe it. After all, a lot of economic activities in recent months have been goosed by stimulus efforts, from low mortgage rates to Cash for Clunkers. So rather than hiring full-time workers to cope with rising demand, they bring in temporary workers, who can easily be let go if demand fizzles again. In November, the economy added 52,000 temporary jobs. And since July, temporary help services employment has risen by 117,000.
The monthly jobs report presents data from two different surveys. The payroll jobs figures tell us how many people companies (i.e., establishments) say they have on their payrolls. The government uses the household survey, in which it calls up people and asks them if they’ve been working, to compile the unemployment rate. In the Bush years, when payroll jobs failed to materialize, partisans discounted the payroll figures and pointed instead to strength in the household survey as evidence of jobs growth. After all, if more people were working for themselves, starting businesses, working as consultants, etc., it wouldn’t show up in the establishment figure but would show up in the household survey. (I called this tendency Anti-disestablish-mentarianism.) I was, and remain, skeptical that the household survey is a superior measure of the employment picture. Most people want payroll jobs—the kind that comes with benefits, paid vacation, etc.—rather than freelance arrangements. Plus, the household survey is a measure of what people say they’re doing. Still, all things being equal, it’s desirable for both the establishment and the household surveys to be moving in the same, positive direction. In November, according to the household survey, the number of people working rose by 227,000.
One month’s data does not suggest a recovery market. But you have to start somewhere. It may turn out that the November jobs report was the beginning of the end of the great employment recession of 2008-09.
What can be inferred from paragraph 4?
选项
A、Employers tend to rely on technology to enhance productivity.
B、When the economy gets better, more people will be employed.
C、Temporary workers are preferred in times of economic uncertainty.
D、Businesses and consumers remain skeptical about economic growth.
答案
C
解析
推断题。第四段讲的是临时工作职位不断增加,由此可推断在经济不稳定时期,临时工人更受公司的青睐。
转载请注明原文地址:https://jikaoti.com/ti/nCkMFFFM
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
ThingstobeTaughtinEverySchoolI.Introduction:Importanceofstudents’abilitytodealwiththerealworld.A.Speaker’so
Properarrangementofclassroomspaceisimportanttoencouraginginteraction.Today’scorporationshirehumanengineeringspec
(1)OnJuly7th,IwastravelinginLondon.IwashavingbreakfastatahotelverynearLiverpoolStreetStationwhenthefirste
A、Anexperiencedteacher.B、Afriendofthetargetlanguage.C、Aregularlearningprogram.D、Aninborntalentoflanguage.C对话中,
(1)Mostpeoplehaveexperiencedthefeeling,afterataxingmentalwork-out,thattheycannotbebotheredtomakeanymoredecis
PASSAGETHREEAccordingtoDaniRodrik,what’sthemostimportantachievementfor"exportfetishism"?
A、BecauseWilliamisinterestedinit.B、BecauseWilliamisgoodatthisfield.C、Becauseitpromisesawell-paidjob.D、Because
DevelopinganAdvertisingCampaignGenerallyspeaking,fourmajorstepsareinvolvedinthedevelopmentofanadvertisingca
ModelsforArgumentsI.ThreemodelsforargumentsA.thefirstmodelforarguingiscalled【T1】______:【T1】______—argumentsar
(1)ThebiggestproblemfacingChileasitpromotesitselfasatouristdestinationtobereckonedwith,isthatitisattheend
随机试题
因男性尿道的耻骨前弯是由阴茎垂于耻骨联合下方形成,故上提阴茎可取消该弯曲。()
关于法律监督,下列表述正确的是:()
机电设备国际招标的评标结束后,招标机构应当在《中国国际招标网》上进行评标结果公示,公示期为()天。
穿越式分体移动模板台车是将走行机构与整体模板分离,因此一套走行机构可以解决几套模板的移动问题,且()。
保险销售不能通过()完成
某公司与政府机关共同使用一栋共有土地使用权的建筑物。该建筑物占用土地面积2000平方米,建筑物面积10000平方米(公司与政府机关的占用比例为3:1),该建筑物所在地城镇土地使用税年税额为每平方米3元。该公司每年应纳城镇土地使用税()元。
银行理财产品可能面临的风险类型有()。
选择与求助者谈话方式时应当考虑的求助者自身因素包括()。
侵占罪是指以非法占有为目的,将为他人保管的财物或者其他遗忘物、埋藏物占为己有,数额较大且拒不交还的行为。根据以上定义,下面哪种行为是典型的侵占罪?()
美欧债务危机不断_________,全球金融市场和实体经济深受其害。中国经济难以_________,经济减速态势愈加明显,通胀却依然居高不下。填入划横线部分最恰当的一项是:
最新回复
(
0
)