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  3. Since 1976, the US dollar’s role as an international currency has been slowly waning. International use of the dollar to hold fo

Since 1976, the US dollar’s role as an international currency has been slowly waning. International use of the dollar to hold fo

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问题 Since 1976, the US dollar’s role as an international currency has been slowly waning. International use of the dollar to hold foreign-exchange reserves, denominate financial transactions, invoice trade, and as a vehicle in currency markets is below its level during the heyday of the Bretton Woods era, from 1945 to 1971. But most people would be surprised by what the most recent numbers show.
There is an abundance of explanations for the downward trend. Since the Vietnam War, US budget deficits, money creation, and current-account deficits have often been high. Presumably as a result, the dollar has lost value relative to other major currencies or in terms of purchasing power. Meanwhile, the US share of global output has declined. And, most recently, the disturbing willingness of some members of the US Congress to pursue a strategy that would cause the Treasury to default on legal obligations has undermined global confidence in the dollar’s privileged status.
Moreover, some emerging-market currencies are joining the club of international currencies for the first time. Indeed, some analysts have suggested that the Chinese renminbi may rival the dollar as the leading international currency by the end of the decade. But the dollar’s status as an international currency has not fallen uniformly. Interestingly, the periods when the public is most concerned about the issue do not coincide with the periods when the dollar’s share in international transactions is in fact falling. It is not an eternal law of nature that the dollar shall always be number one. The pound sterling had the top spot in the nineteenth century, only to be surpassed by the dollar in the first half of the twentieth century. The day may come when the dollar, too, succumbs to a rival. But today is not that day.
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答案 1976年以来，美元作为国际货币的作用一直在缓慢减弱。国际上用美元作为外汇储备、为金融交易计价、结算贸易以及货币市场载体的程度还不如1945—1971年布雷顿森林时代的鼎盛期。但大部分人会对最新数字所揭示的内容感到震惊。 对于这一衰落趋势，解释层出不穷。自越战以来，美国的预算赤字、货币创造和经常项目赤字总是非常高。美元相对其他主要货币的价值或者美元的购买力有所损失也不足为奇。与此同时，美国在全球产出中所占的份额也有所下降。而在最近，美国国会的一些议员中存在令人不安的意图，即采取一种可能导致财政部对其法定债务违约的战略，这影响了全球对美元特权地位的信心。 此外，一些新兴市场的货币正在首次进入国际货币俱乐部。事实上，一些分析师指出，到这个十年结束时，人民币可能挑战美元作为领先国际货币的地位。但美元作为国际货币的地位并没有一路下降。有趣的是，公众最担心这一问题的时期却并非美元在国际交易中份额下降的时期。美元将永葆其第一的位置，这绝非永恒的自然法则。19世纪处于顶级位置的是英镑，但在20世纪上半叶就被美元超越。美元也有被后浪拍死在沙滩上的一天，但肯定不是今天。
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