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  3. JOBS A person planning for a career today must look carefully at the expected occupational trends and changes in the job mar

JOBS A person planning for a career today must look carefully at the expected occupational trends and changes in the job mar

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问题                                                JOBS
    A person planning for a career today must look carefully at the expected occupational trends and changes in the job market. Affecting the economy are changes in the size, age, and distribution of the population, as well as developments in technology. These changes also affect employment opportunities. For example, an aging population has increased the need for medical care and other health services. Computer technology has not only eliminated or changed the nature of many jobs but also created new occupations. By analyzing the changing economy and the factors causing these changes, a person can forecast, or predict, future trends in employment.
A New Labor Force
    The United States labor force—the total number of people over the age of 16 who are employed or are actively seeking work totaled 127 million in 1992. By the year 2005, the labor force is expected to reach 151 million, an increase of 19%. This increase represents a slight slowdown in the growth of the labor force compared with growth during the previous 13-year period, 1979-1992. The slowdown is largely due to slower population growth in the United States.
    The U.S. labor force will become more diverse by 2005. White non-Hispanic men will make up a slightly smaller proportion of the labor force than in 1992, while women and minority group members will make up a larger share. Between 1992 and 2005, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic(种族的) groups will account for roughly 35% of all people entering the work force, In addition, women will continue to join the labor force in growing numbers. In 1979, women made up 420% of the labor force. By 2005, their share is expected to be 48%.
    The age make-up of the U.S. population will change from 1992 to 2005. There will be a smaller proportion of children and teenagers and a larger proportion of middle-aged and older people. The decline in the proportion of children and teenagers reflects the lower birth rates of the 1980s and 1990s. The large increase in the middle-aged population reflects the aging of the baby boom generation—people born between 1946 and 1964.The rapid growth of the older population reflects both the high birth rates before the 1930s and improvements in medical technology that are allowing Americans to live longer.
    The changing age make-up of the U.S. population will directly affect tomorrow’s work force. Young people age 16 to 24 are expected to make up roughly the same percentage of the labor force in 2005 as they did in 1992. However, the percentage of workers age 25 to 34 will decline dramatically, from 28% to 21%. The baby boom generation will continue to add members to the work force, but their share will decline slightly. The most striking change will be a large increase in the percentage of workers between the ages of 45 and 54. These workers will account for 24% of the labor force in 2005, up from 18% in 1992. Workers in this age group usually have more employment experience than younger workers. Thus, employers will be able to choose from a larger pool of experienced applicants, people seeking jobs, in coming years.
Education: A Prerequisite(先决条件) for Employment
    The education level of the labor force has risen dramatically in recent years. In 1980, for example, 19% of all workers age 25 and older had completed four years of college. In 1992, 27% had a bachelor’s degree or higher. The trend toward higher educational achievement is expected to continue.
    From 1992 to 2005, employment growth will be faster for occupations requiring higher levels of education or training than for those requiring less. Managerial, professional, and technical positions will make up an increasing proportion of new jobs that become available. Many of the occupations projected for grow most rapidly are those with higher earnings.
    Office and factory automation, changes in consumer demand, and the movement of factories overseas will continue to affect job opportunities. Employment in jobs requiring little formal education may decline. They may also stagnate, or stay the same, making job opportunities for people who have not finished high school increasingly limited. In addition, those workers will be more likely to have low paying jobs with little opportunity for advancement.
Goods Vs Services
    Today industries providing services employ more people than those providing goods. Currently, about 21% of the labor force is employed in goods-producing industries, such as mining, manufacturing, and construction. About 79% of United States workers are employed in service-producing industries, such as health care, education, transportation, communications, and banking. Economists forecast a continued increase in the number of jobs in service-producing industries. By 2005, service jobs are expected to make up 82% of the job market.
Employment Trends in Service Industries
    Health services will continue to be one of the fastest growing industries in the U.S. economy from 1992 to 2005. For example, home health care is the second most rapidly growing industry today. The in creased demand for health services is due to improvements in medical technology, the growing size of the U.S. population, and the increasing proportion of older people in the population.
    Business services also will generate many jobs by 2005. However, this industry will grow more slowly than it did from 1979 to 1992. Business services include one of the fastest growing industries in the U.S. economy: computer and data processing services. This industry’s rapid growth is due to advances in technology, worldwide trends toward office and factory automation, and increased demand by companies, government agencies, and individuals.
    Other service industries also will experience growth from 1992 to 2005. Education, for example, is expected to add 2.8 million jobs due to population growth and rising school enrollments. Employment in social services is expected to increase by 1.7 million. In fact, the most rapidly growing industry in the U.S. economy today is residential care. The economy will also see strong job growth in the passenger transportation industry, including travel agencies. Employment in the communications industry, however, is expected to decline by 12%. This decline is due to labor saving technology and increased competition among companies.
Employment Trends in Goods-Producing Industries
    Overall employment in goods-producing industries is expected to show little change between 1992 and 2005. However, growth will vary among industries, with some industries experiencing an increase in jobs and others experiencing a decrease.
    Employment in the construction industry, for example, is expected to increase 26%, from 4.5 million in 1992 to 5.6 million in 2005. The need to improve the nation’s roads, bridges, and tunnels will offset(补偿) the declining demand for new homes and office buildings. Also, after declining for many years, overall employment in farming, forestry, and fishing is projected to grow by 14%, from 1.7 million to 2 million jobs.
    Jobs in other goods-producing industries will continue to decline. For example, employment in manufacturing is expected to decrease by 3% from its 1992 level of 18 million jobs. Most of the jobs that will disappear will be production jobs, as machines continue to replace people. However, the number of pro fessional and technical positions in manufacturing will increase. Mining employment, which includes the petroleum industry, is expected to decline 11% by 2005, from 631,000 to 562,000 jobs.
选项 A、Y
B、N
C、NG
答案A
解析 本题考查文章的主题。需要先将文章浏览一遍。先看文章首段，第一句引起话题，说“做事业规划的人必须关注劳动力市场上的就业趋势和变化(occupational trends and changes)”，接着提出了影响就业机会( employment opportunities)同时也是影响经济的几个因素——人口和技术，并分别举例说明。，最后说，分析经济的变化和这些变化的原因将帮助人们把握就业的未来趋势(future trends in employment)。以下各段共三个部分，“A New Labor Force”部分介绍了美国当前和历史上劳动力大军的数量和构成，并分析对就业形势的影响；“Education”部分分析了教育在历史上和将来对就业形势的影响；“Goods Vs Services”部分分别分析了Service Industries和Goods-Producing Industries内的就业趋势。所以本题题干的表述完全正确，the employment of the future就相当于文章中的future trends in employment。
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