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  3. We’re moving into another era, as the toxic(有毒的) effects of the bubble(泡沫) and its grave consequences spread through the financi

We’re moving into another era, as the toxic(有毒的) effects of the bubble(泡沫) and its grave consequences spread through the financi

admin2017-11-14  73
问题     We’re moving into another era, as the toxic(有毒的) effects of the bubble(泡沫) and its grave consequences spread through the financial system. Just a couple of years ago investors dreamed of 20 percent returns forever. Now surveys show that they’re down to a "realistic" 8 percent to 10 percent range.
    But what if the next few years turn out to be below normal expectations? Martin Barners of the Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal expects future stock returns to average just 4 percent to 6 percent. Sound impossible? After a much smaller bubble that burst in the mid-1960s Standard & Poor’s 5000 stock average returned 6.9 percent a year (with dividends reinvested) for the following 17 years. Few investors are prepared for that.
    Right now denial seems to be the attitude of choice. That’s typical, says Lori Lucas of Hewitt, the consulting firm. You hate to look at your investments when they’re going down. Hewitt tracks 500,000 401 (k) accounts every day, and finds that savers are keeping their contributions up. But they’re much less inclined to switch their money around. "It’s the slot-machine (老虎机) effect," Lucas says. "People get more interested in playing when they think they’ve got a hot machine"—and nothing’s hot today. The average investor feels overwhelmed.
    Against all common sense, many savers still shut their eyes to the dangers of owning too much company stock. In big companies last year, a surprising 29 percent of employees held at least three quarters of their 402 (k) in their own stock.
    Younger employees may have no choice. You often have to wait until you’re 50 or 55 before you can sell any company stock you get.
    But instead of getting out when they can, old participants have been holding, too. One third of the people 60 and up chose company stock for three quarters of their plan, Hewitt reports. Are they inattentive? Loyal excessively? Sick? It’s as if Lucent, Enron and Xerox never happened.
    No investor should give his or her total trust to any particular company’s stock. And while you’re at it, think how you’d be if future stock returns—averaging good years and bad—are as poor as Barnes predicts.
    If you ask me, diversified stocks remain good for the long run, with a backup in bonds. But I, too, am figuring on reduced returns. What a shame. Dear bubble, I’ll never forget. It’s the end of a grand affair.
The investors’ judgment of the present stock returns seems to be_________.
选项 A、fanciful
B、pessimistic
C、groundless
D、realistic
答案A
解析 细节题。第一段提到，投资者几年前的梦想是永远拿到20％的(股票投资)回报。现在调查显示它降到了“现实的”8％至10％的范围。第二段作者先提出疑问：但是如果未来几年里这个值低于正常的期望呢?接着以银行信用分析家Martin Barners和标准普尔5 000指数为例指出，未来股票投资回报率必然是下降的。第二段末句作者指出，很少有投资者为此做好了准备。由此可推出，面对股票投资回报下降的趋势，投资者的判断是不够现实的，是幻想的。另外，第一段的dreamed of、realistic的引号，以及第二段sound impossible后面的问号也都暗示了这一点。因此A项为正确答案。
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