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  3. Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, an

Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, an

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问题     Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, and their application requires an elaborate (2)_____ of cause and effect. Others are relatively simple, (3)_____ most developments in the economy to one or two basic factors. Many economists, for example, believe that changes in the supply of money (4)_____ the rate of growth of general business activity. Others (5)_____ a central role to investment in new facilities—housing, industrial plants, highways, and so forth. In the United States, where consumers (6)_____ such a large share of economic activity, some economy believe that consumer decisions to (7)_____ or save provide the principal (8)_____ to the future course of the entire economy. Obviously the theory that a forecaster applies is of (9)_____ importance to the forecasting process; it (10)_____ his line of investigation, the statistics he will regard as most important, and many of the techniques he will apply.
    Although economic theory may determine the general (11)_____ of a forecast, judgment also often plays an important role. A forecaster may decide that the circumstances of the moment are (12)_____ and that a forecast produced by the (13)_____ statistical methods should be modified to take account of special current circumstances. This is particularly necessary when some event outside the Usual run of economic activity has an a (14)_____ economic effect. For example, forecasts of 1987 economic activity in the United States were more accurate when the analyst correctly foresaw that the exchange value of the dollar would (15)_____ sharply during the year that consumer spending would slacken, and that (16)_____ rates would rise only moderately. None of these conclusions followed (17)_____ purely economic analysis; they all required judgment as to future decisions (18)_____, an economist may decide to adjust an economic forecast that was made by traditional methods to take account of other unique (19)_____; he may, for example, decide that consumers will (20)_____ their spending patterns because of special circumstances such as rising price of imports or fear of threatened shortages.

选项 A、trail
B、trap
C、tracking
D、tracing
答案D
解析 考查上下文语义衔接与近义词辨析。空格后的cause and effect提示本句意思是耍弄清楚因果关系，也就是要追溯因果关系，因此选tracing"追溯，调查"。trail作名词时是"痕迹，踪迹"；trap作名词时，意为"陷阱，诡计"，是个形近干扰项；tracking是"跟踪"，常指通过某物留下来的一个记号或一系列记号来追踪。
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