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  3. Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes

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问题     Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long,variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact,it fell to 2.6%in August, and is expected to average only about 3%for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies,and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5. 6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
From the text we learn that______.
选项 A、there is a clear relationship between inflation and interest rates
B、the economy always follows particular trends
C、the current economic problems are entirely predictable
D、the present economic situation is better than expected
答案D
解析 推论题。当前的经济形势比预期的好。此题需要根据全文大意归纳判断。参阅文章第三段：通货膨胀比大多数预测者预测的低。比如，通过调查，经济专家小组称：1995年美国平均通胀率将达到3．5％左右。事实上，8月份就降到2．6％，全年也不过3％上下。在英国和日本，平均通胀率比上年底低0．5个百分点。而且，在过去几年来情况一直如此。总之，在英美两国，平均通胀率一直比预测的低。这充分说明，经济形势确实比预期的好。选项[A]意为：通胀率和利率有直接关系。不符事实，见第一段第三句。选项[B]意为：经济运作模式总是固定的。也与事实相反，见第一段。选项[C]意为：当前的经济问题完全可预测到。与事实正好相反，见第三、四两段的头两句：不仅没有预测到，而且对大好的经济形势感到惊讶。
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