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  3. Latin America—a place long associated with financial disaster—has remained improbably calm, while the ripples of America’s subpr

Latin America—a place long associated with financial disaster—has remained improbably calm, while the ripples of America’s subpr

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问题     Latin America—a place long associated with financial disaster—has remained improbably calm, while the ripples of America’s subprime-mortgage crisis have spread all over the place. Banks have reported no unpleasant surprises. Brazil and Peru have been blessed with coveted investment-grade ratings. Surprisingly, perhaps the fleetest country of all has been Argentina. Since it emerged from the financial crisis of 2001-02, it has been one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. It is expected to expand faster than most of its neighbors again this year. How has such a perennial economic miscreant proven so resilient to the credit crunch?
    Quite simply, it barely has no credit. Back when its economy virtually collapsed, the country suffered a run on its banks, followed by a freeze on withdrawals, and a massive currency devaluation. As a result, bank lending to the private sector shrivelled, from 23.8% of GDP in 2000 to 10.8% in 2003. Since then, it has rebounded to a piddling 13%; by contrast, the ratio in Brazil was 36.5% in 2006. Almost all of these loans in Argentina are accessible only on a short-term basis.
    Once its recovery began in June 2002, Argentina became a paradise for business. Unemployment of over 20% kept wages down, and the devaluation gave exporters an edge on foreign competitors. The ample productive capacity left idle by the crisis meant firms could expand without making big investments. And the windfall profits reaped by agricultural exporters, thanks to record commodities prices, enabled many of them to finance new projects out of earnings. Hence the economy could grow at almost 9% a year with little need for credit.
    But such a fortuitous confluence of factors could not last. Starting in early 2005, inflation picked up, a sign that the installed capacity was starting to limit output. Salaries and prices for raw materials increased sharply, cutting into profits. And farmers were particularly hard hit when the government nearly doubled the taxes it leaves on farm exports. Now, just as companies need to embark on big investments if they are to keep growing, their margins are no longer big enough to pay for the expansion and they need to borrow.
    So, the time is ripe for the country’s financial system to recover. But a number of things are in the way. Foremost is Argentina’s business risk. Those in the informal economy (which represents over 40% of GDP) can neither save nor borrow legally, lest they become known to the taxmen. The rest remain cowed by memories of the crisis. Although Argentines have poured their savings into property, fuelling a construction boom, they still hold about four-fifths of their deposits abroad.
    Inflation, fuelled by a public-spending binge, state-mandated wage increases, and a cheap currency, is not helping either. No one knows how high it is. The consumer-price index is doctored to keep the official rate below 10%, but private estimates suggest it is near 25%. Without a reliable index of inflation, lending is all but impossible, even for the medium term. And the central bank has kept interest rates strongly negative in real terms, encouraging workers to spend their wages rather than to save.
What is the main idea of the text?
选项 A、Credit does not play a role in economy.
B、Banking sector and capital markets sometimes are not so essential in economy.
C、Argentina’s economy is the best one in Latin America.
D、Argentina is a paradise for business.
答案B
解析 本题是一道中心主旨题。本文属于典型的现象分析型文章。阿根廷经济一枝独秀只是一种现象，必须与文章首句的美国次贷危机相结合。本文第二段的首句就指出了阿根廷经济不受次贷危机影响，并维持较快发展势头是因为阿根廷没什么贷款。换言之，借贷在阿根廷经济发展中并不扮演重要角色，没有借贷照样发展，而文章剩下的部分都是围绕这一观点进行具体分析。选项B没有出现credit一词，但凭借常识考生应当知道所谓banking sector and capital markets就是指借贷。况且第一段讨论次贷危机时就提到“银行业并没什么令人不快的意外”，也充分说明了银行业与借贷之间的关系。所以选项B符合题意是正确答案。
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