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  3. Studies of the political orientations of 1,055 college students revealed that the plurality of students in an eastern, big-city,

Studies of the political orientations of 1,055 college students revealed that the plurality of students in an eastern, big-city,

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问题 Studies of the political orientations of 1,055 college students revealed that the plurality of students in an eastern, big-city, private university was liberal, whereas in a state-supported, southern college, the plurality was conservative. Orientations were independent of the student’s region of origin, and the trends were much more pronounced in seniors than in beginning students.
Which of the following hypotheses is best supported by the observations stated above?
选项 A、The political orientations of college students are more similar to the political orientations of their parents when the students start college than when the students are seniors.
B、The political orientations of college seniors depend significantly on experiences they have had while in college.
C、A college senior originally from the South is more likely to be politically conservative than is a college senior originally from the East.
D、Whether their college is state-supported or private is the determining factor in college students’ political orientations.
E、College students tend to become more conservative politically as they become older and are confronted with pressures for financial success.
答案B
解析 Argument Evaluation
Situation Studies of a total of 1,055 college students in an eastern big-city private university and in a state-supported southern college found that, in the sample, the political orientation of most students in the private college was liberal and that of most students in the southern college was conservative. Among the liberal students identified in the private college and among the conservative students identified in the state-supported college, significantly more were seniors than beginning students.
Reasoning What would best explain the trends observed in the college students’ political orientations? Five hypotheses to explain the trends are offered, and we are asked to identify the hypothesis that is most supported by the information already given about the studies. It should be noted that the information given is very limited, whereas the hypotheses offered involve quite broad generalizations, so whatever support is provided by the given information for any of these will at best be quite weak from a statistician’s perspective. We should look for the hypothesis that makes the least ambitious claim and draws most closely on the given information.
A The given information, without unjustified introduction of unstated assumptions, provides no insight into the political orientations of the students’ parents.
B Correct. Among the five hypotheses offered, this makes the least ambitious claim. Although its scope extends to college seniors in general (and in a statistical sense goes far beyond the evidence provided in the given information), it is the best supported of the five because it deviates least from the information we have. It is a good inference that the students’political re-orientation occurred as a result of the "experiences they have had while in college"—even if some of the truly mind-changing experiences were obtained it activities unrelated to their college life (e.g., speaking with fellow workers in a part-time restaurant job).
C We are given no information about the students’places of origin. The passage states: "orientations were independent of the student’s region of origin."
D The given information provides no information regarding which among a multiplicity of conceivable influences contributed most strongly to the students’ political orientations.
E We are not told in the given information that the students were "confronted with pressures for financial success"—although it is a truism that they were becoming older in their progress toward graduation.
The correct answer is B.
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