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  3. When You Move, I Move: Increasing Synchronization among Asia’s Economies In recent decades, trade integration within Asia ha

When You Move, I Move: Increasing Synchronization among Asia’s Economies In recent decades, trade integration within Asia ha

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问题     When You Move, I Move: Increasing Synchronization among Asia’s Economies
    In recent decades, trade integration within Asia has increased more than in other regions. In valued-added terms, intraregional trade grew on average by over 10 percent a year from 1990 to 2012, twice the pace seen outside of Asia. Likewise, financial integration within the region has started to catch up, although it still lags behind trade integration. Concomitantly, business cycles in A-sia have become steadily more synchronized over the past two decades, with the correlation between ASEAN economies’ growth rates almost reaching the very high levels seen within the Euro Area.
    As outlined in the IMF Asia and Pacific Department’s latest Regional Economic Outlook, these facts are related. Namely, increases in trade and financial integration have strengthened the propagation of growth shocks between regional partners, leading Asian economies to move more in lock-step. One driver of this synchronization of business cycles has been the increase in size and connectedness of China’s economy. Looking ahead, we expect regional integration agenda and a bigger China to further increase spillovers and growth co-movement across the region. Greater international cooperation, particularly regional and global financial safety nets, can help countries respond to the associated risk of more synchronized, sharper downturns, and thereby help Asia make the most of greater regional integration.
    On the trade side, our study brings a novel finding: what makes two economies co-move-by propagating shocks across borders—is the intensity of their bilateral trade in value-added terms, not in gross terms. The iPhone supply chain example illustrates why this makes sense: although China exports the product to the US, its domestic firms add only a small fraction of the overall value added , so that gross exports vastly over-estimate the dependence of the Chinese economy on final demand from American consumers. The reverse holds for Korea or Taiwan POC, which reap sizeable value added through exports of components to China even though they don’t export any iPhones to the US. Overall, the trend increase in the value-added traded between Asian economies over the past two decades has accounted for around one-quarter of the concomitant increase in business cycle synchronization across the region.
    Financial integration has been a more ambivalent force. Across the world, it has magnified the impact on business cycle synchronization of large global shocks like the global financial crisis, as global banks pulled funds back across the board. But in normal times, it has lowered synchronization somewhat, possibly by facilitating international reallocation of capital when a shock hits one country. However, this has been less of a factor in Asia, where cross-border financial claims and flows have so far been comparatively small.
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答案 亦步亦趋：亚洲经济体的同步性不断增强 近几十年来，亚洲贸易一体化的步伐大于其他地区。以增加值计算，1990年至2012年，亚洲区域内贸易平均每年增长10％以上，增速是亚洲之外地区的两倍。同样，该地区的金融一体化也开始赶超，但仍落后于贸易一体化。伴随而来的是，过去二十年里，亚洲地区的商业周期的同步性稳步上升，东盟各经济体增长率的关联度几乎达到了欧元区内的极高水平。 正如基金组织亚太部最新一期《地区经济展望》所述，上述情况是相互关联的，即贸易与金融一体化的发展推动了区域伙伴之间增长冲击的传播，导致亚洲经济体的步伐愈发一致。中国经济的规模扩大和对外关联度增强是商业周期同步化的一个驱动因素。展望未来，我们预计区域一体化行动和中国的发展将进一步加强该地区的溢出效应和增长联动性。加强国际合作，尤其是区域和全球金融安全网方面的合作，有助于各国应对更同步的、更急剧的经济下滑风险，进而使亚洲能从深化区域一体化中获得最大的收益。 在贸易方面，我们的研究得出了一个新颖的观点，即导致两个经济体(通过跨境传播冲击进行)联动的因素是以增加值衡量的双边贸易规模，而非总值衡量的规模。苹果手机供应链的例子可以很好地解释这个道理。虽然中国向美国出口产品，但国内企业获得的增加值仅为总体增加值的一小部分，因此按总出口来衡量的话会大大高估中国经济对美国消费者最终需求的依赖性。韩国或中国台湾的情况则正相反：即便他们不向美国出口任何苹果手机，但可通过向中国出口配件来获取丰厚的增加值。总体上来看，亚洲商业周期同步性的增幅中，约有四分之一是因为过去二十年里亚洲经济体之间贸易增加值的趋势增长。 金融一体化则是一股更具矛盾的力量。在全球范围内，由于危机期间全球性银行全面收回资金，金融一体化加剧了诸如国际金融危机这种大规模全球冲击对商业周期同步性的影响。但在正常时期，金融一体化导致同步性有所下降，其途径可能是：在冲击影响某一国时，金融一体化会促进资本在全球的再分配。然而，金融一体化对亚洲的影响不大，因为该地区跨境金融债权和流动的规模至今相对较小。
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