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  3. Publication bias in academic journals is nothing new. A finding of no correlation between sporting events and either violent cri

Publication bias in academic journals is nothing new. A finding of no correlation between sporting events and either violent cri

admin2019-08-08  29
问题    Publication bias in academic journals is nothing new. A finding of no correlation between sporting events and either violent crime or property crime may be analytically top class, but you couldn’t be blamed, frankly, for not giving a damn. 【F1】But if journal editors are more interested in surprising or dramatic results, there is a danger that the final selection of published papers offers a distorted vision of reality.
   This should skew the distribution of published results, towards more "significant" findings. But a paper just published in a journal finds evidence of a different sort of bias, closer to the source. The results suggest that among the results that are only just significant, 10-20% have been made up.
   【F2】One explanation is that if a result shows up as significant at the 5% significance level (the industry standard) then researchers crack open the champagne and move on to making economics jokes. But if the result is ridiculously close to a positive result then perhaps the researchers will mess about a bit with their method... and celebrate their nice publisher-friendly result. 【F3】One of the paper’s authors explains that in economics it is difficult to conduct controlled experiments, which ultimately gives a lot of freedom to researchers to twist their methods. Sometimes researchers are twisting because they want to find the best way of estimating an effect, but sometimes it’s in the search for a significant effect The distinction might be hazy, even in their own minds.
   【F4】This is worrying for those trying to interpret and communicate the latest research, as it is impossible to tell if there has been foul play in any individual study. But more fundamentally it is worrying for the profession and policymakers making decisions based on economic evidence; being idle and running multiple, slightly different tests on the same data rapidly sucks meaning from the reported size and accuracy of the final results.
   Various solutions have been proposed. 【F5】One is to publish "pre-analysis plans", where researchers say how they will do their analysis before they actually do it. Another is to encourage more copy. To avoid the embarrassment of a non-result, researchers should be stricter with themselves when it comes to twisting their results. When sample sizes are small, this fix is difficult, as halving the sample power from tests. But in a world of big data, it could work. The bigger barrier might be getting career-conscious researchers to sign up.
【F5】
选项
答案其中一种方案是发表“预分析计划”，在此预分析计划中，研究者在开展实际分析之前，要说出他们将如何进行分析。
解析 ①本句是复合句。主句为简单的主系表结构，表语为不定式结构to publish“pre-analysis plans”。②where引导定语从句，修饰主句表语中的pre-analysis plans；where在此定语从句中既是引导词，又是地点状语；该定语从句中包含how引导的从句作say的宾语，before引导此宾语从句中的时间状语从句。
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