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  3. Population growth has long been a controversial issue in economic circles, yet, surprisingly enough, the actual study of its eff

Population growth has long been a controversial issue in economic circles, yet, surprisingly enough, the actual study of its eff

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问题     Population growth has long been a controversial issue in economic circles, yet, surprisingly enough, the actual study of its effects is fairly well established and universal. One advantage in studying the phenomena is that wild fluctuations of populations have occurred in history, and their resulting economic impacts have been accurately recorded for analysis and dissemination by economists of future generations. The most revealing incident, no doubt, is the case of the Black Plague.
    The Black Plague, which swept through Europe and robbed it of a quarter of its population, was a tragic event of its time, but yielded the ideal environment for retrospective study of population economics. The initial result that was observed was that, with the death of so many, the work force was horrendously reduced, leaving many to believe that productivity would plummet and resources would sit idle. By that reasoning, forecasters of the period predicted a catastrophic blow to the European economy from which full recovery was only a slight possibility.
    The result of the devastation left in the plague’s wake, however, was much different. While the labor force did indeed decrease dramatically in numbers, the efficiency of each individual worker improved, due to the lessened effects of economies of scale. Although total output dropped, output per capita actually increased, since each laborer was now producing more and there were less consumers to share the output. Also, resources did remain unused, but after an initial period of waste, the costs that those wasted resources represented lowered when businesses adapted to the situation by investing in the policy of buying less resources. Thus, the overall economic result was that workers were more productive, businesses were more efficient and there was more output per person in Europe.
    Wages rose as well, since the demand for labor far exceeded the supply. Nevertheless, despite these seemingly positive results, the net effect of the Black Plague in Europe was an almost undisputedly negative one. The per capita increases were more than offset by the aggregate loss in total product. From this, the keen economist must learn that the distinction between macro and micro levels of economics must be observed to obtain an accurate picture, especially when dealing with a central element of the economy as population.
After evaluating the effects of the Black Plague from an economic perspective, it can be concluded that______.
选项 A、on the larger scale, it was a positive event, but on the smaller scale it was a blow to the European economy
B、because the macroeconomic conclusion is negative, it was a wholly negative economic event
C、it is entirely uncertain as to whether the outcome was positive or negative due to conflicting results, depending on what level evaluation took place
D、on a macroeconomic level, it was a negative event, but the initial microeconomic implications were surprisingly positive
答案D
解析 属信息推断题。第三段最后一句指出最初黑瘟疫事件带来的正面影响：欧洲经济的整体结果是：工人的生产能力更强；商业机构的工作效率更高；人均占有产品量更多。第四段第二、三句指出其负面影响：尽管表面看起来黑瘟疫带来很多积极的影响，它给欧洲带来的根本性影响几乎可以无可辩驳地说是负面的。人均增长值远不能弥补产品总量的整体损失。由此可知，选项D正确。选项A与此句正相反；选项B与原文内容不符，原文明确提到了黑瘟疫的正面影响，所以不能说它是wholly negative的；选项C也不对，原文已经明确评价了黑瘟疫的正面影响和负面影响，所以不能说其结果是entirely uncertain的。
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