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  3. Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

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问题     Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2. 3 % last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2. 5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicated. In late 1994, the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3. 5% in 1995. In 1995, in fact, it fell to 2. 6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate(5. 6% in August)has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
From the passage we learn that______.
选项 A、there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
B、economy will always follow certain models
C、the economic situation is better than expected
D、economists had foreseen the present economic situation
答案C
解析 从文章第1段的内容可知，利率与通货膨胀之间的联系并不稳定；政策变动对经济产生影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期；因此，出现了这样的类比——将管理金融政策比作驾驶一辆挡风玻璃发黑、后视镜破碎并且驱动轮不灵便的汽车。从文章第2段的内容可知，尽管有这些不利条件，但是最近，主要的银行家似乎有不少值得夸耀的东西；去年七大工业国家的平均通胀率下降了，接近30年来的最低水平，比许多国家20世纪70年代和80年代早期经历过的两位数的通胀率要低很多。从文章第3段的内容可知，这一数字也比大多数预测人员的预测低。从文章第4段的内容可知，英、美两国良好的通胀率尤其令经济学家感到惊异，两国的经济，尤其是美国的经济，几乎没有停滞。文章在最后一段总结道：为什么通胀率增长得如此和缓呢?一些经济学家认为，旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所发生的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式。据此可知，英、美两国目前的经济形势比预计的状况要好。C项与文章的意思相符。A项之意与文章第1段第3句话的意思不符。B项不正确，依据句是文章最后一段的最后一句“旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所引起的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式”。D项明显与文章第3、4段第1句话的意思不符。综上所述，只有C项为正确答案。
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