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  3. For nearly two years, China’s turbocharged economy has raced ahead with the aid of a huge government stimulus program and aggres

For nearly two years, China’s turbocharged economy has raced ahead with the aid of a huge government stimulus program and aggres

admin2014-11-03  60
问题 For nearly two years, China’s turbocharged economy has raced ahead with the aid of a huge government stimulus program and aggressive lending by state-run banks. But a growing number of economists now worry that China—the world’s fastest growing economy and a pillar of strength during the global financial crisis—could be stalled next year by soaring inflation, mounting government debt and asset bubbles. Two credit ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, say China is still poised for growth, yet they have also recently warned about hidden risks in its banking system. Fitch even hinted at the possibility of another wave of nonperforming loans tied to the property market. In the late 1990s and early this decade, the Chinese government was forced to bail out and recapitalize these same state-run banks because a soaring number of bad loans had left them nearly insolvent. Those banks are much stronger now, after a series of record public stock offerings in recent years that have raised billions of dollars from global investors. But last week, an analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland advised clients to hedge against the risk that a flood of cash into China, coupled with soaring inflation, could result in a "day of reckoning. " A sharp slowdown in China, which is growing at an annual rate of about 10 percent, would be a serious blow to the global economy since China’s voracious demand for natural resources is helping to prop up growth in Asia and South America, even as the United States and the European Union struggle. And because China is a major holder of United States Treasury debt and a major destination for American investment in recent years, any slowdown would also hurt American companies. Aware of the risks, Beijing has moved recently to tame its domestic growth and rein in soaring food and housing prices by raising interest rates, tightening regulations on property sales and restricting lending.
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答案 差不多两年来，动力十足的中国经济凭借一项庞大的政府刺激计划和国有银行激进的放贷举措，延续着高速增长的态势。但越来越多的经济学家现在开始担心，飙涨的通胀率、不断攀升的政府债务和资产泡沫，或许将在明年令世界增速最快，同时亦在全球金融危机期间发挥了支柱作用的中国经济陷入困境。摩迪和惠誉国际表示，中国经济依然处于增长期，但这两家信贷评级机构最近也针对中国银行体系存在的风险发出了警告。惠誉国际甚至暗示，中国银行体系有可能爆发另一波与房地产市场相连的不良贷款浪潮。20世纪90年代末和21世纪初期，中国政府曾经被迫向这些国有银行提供紧急援助，并向其注入了大量资金，因为不断上升的不良贷款已经让它们处于濒临破产的境地。近些年来，在经历了一系列创纪录的公开发行上市，从全球投资者那里募集到数十亿美元资金之后，这些银行的财力已今非昔比。但上周，苏格兰皇家银行声称，热钱涌入，加上不断攀升的通胀率有可能导致中国经济迎来“算总账的一天”，并建议客户针对这一风险采取保护措施。倘若年均增速约10％的中国经济骤然放缓，全球经济将遭受重创，因为在美国和欧盟经济苦苦挣扎之际，中国对自然资源的旺盛需求业已成为亚洲和南美经济增长的主要驱动力。此外，由于中国是美国国债的主要持有者，近些年来也成了美国公司投资的主要目的地，中国经济放缓将伤及美国公司的利益。在意识到这些风险之后，北京方面近期采取了提高利率、加强对房地产销售的管制、限制银行放贷等措施，试图控制国内经济增速，遏制不断飙涨的食品及住房价格。
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