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  3. Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

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问题     Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2. 3 % last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2. 5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicated. In late 1994, the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3. 5% in 1995. In 1995, in fact, it fell to 2. 6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate(5. 6% in August)has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
选项 A、Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car.
B、An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation.
C、A high unemployment rate will result from inflation.
D、Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.
答案B
解析 本题中，A项不正确，文章第1段最后一句话只是将管理金融政策比作驾驶汽车，并不是说制定金融政策就像开车；C项明显不符合文章的意思；D项不正确，从文章第1段的第3、4句话可知，利率与通货膨胀之间的联系并不稳定，政策变动对经济产生影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期；从文章第4段的最后一句话可知，今年早些时候，美国的生产力利用率创历史新高，而失业率却比大多数人预测的自然失业率要低——在过去，失业率一低于此，通货膨胀率就会上升。据此可知，如果失业率低就会导致通货膨胀。B项与文中的意思相符，因此B项为正确答案。
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