2. 考研
  3. Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, an

Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, an

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问题     Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, and their application requires an elaborate (2)_____ of cause and effect. Others are relatively simple, (3)_____ most developments in the economy to one or two basic factors. Many economists, for example, believe that changes in the supply of money (4)_____ the rate of growth of general business activity. Others (5)_____ a central role to investment in new facilities—housing, industrial plants, highways, and so forth. In the United States, where consumers (6)_____ such a large share of economic activity, some economy believe that consumer decisions to (7)_____ or save provide the principal (8)_____ to the future course of the entire economy. Obviously the theory that a forecaster applies is of (9)_____ importance to the forecasting process; it (10)_____ his line of investigation, the statistics he will regard as most important, and many of the techniques he will apply.
    Although economic theory may determine the general (11)_____ of a forecast, judgment also often plays an important role. A forecaster may decide that the circumstances of the moment are (12)_____ and that a forecast produced by the (13)_____ statistical methods should be modified to take account of special current circumstances. This is particularly necessary when some event outside the Usual run of economic activity has an a (14)_____ economic effect. For example, forecasts of 1987 economic activity in the United States were more accurate when the analyst correctly foresaw that the exchange value of the dollar would (15)_____ sharply during the year that consumer spending would slacken, and that (16)_____ rates would rise only moderately. None of these conclusions followed (17)_____ purely economic analysis; they all required judgment as to future decisions (18)_____, an economist may decide to adjust an economic forecast that was made by traditional methods to take account of other unique (19)_____; he may, for example, decide that consumers will (20)_____ their spending patterns because of special circumstances such as rising price of imports or fear of threatened shortages.

选项 A、waste
B、invest
C、purchase
D、economize
答案B
解析 考查上下文语义衔接。注意空格词与save由or连接，可以判断与save反义复现，首先排除与save有同义关系的选项economize"节约"。所填词和save应该有同一个宾语，即文章中没有出现却暗含的money，由此可以排除purchase；而waste"浪费"明显不符合常理，只有invest既符合语义，又与上一句中的investment相呼应。本句大意是有些经济学家认为消费者投资或者储蓄的决定是对未来整个经济进程的首要提示。
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