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  3. "The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of t

"The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of t

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问题     "The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of the year. " There are already some signs that important pillars are weakening. Consumer confidence has fallen for the past two months, and the housing sector, which has been buoyant, is starting to sink. Corporate profits are falling.
    Some analysts are especially concerned over the sharp fall of commodity prices. They believe it represents the threat of deflation, or falling prices in general. While this may be good for consumers, it could cause a global slowdown "The Central Bank will have to act forcefully to arrest the deflationary forces," says Robert LaMorte, chairman of Behavioral Economics, a consulting firm in San Diego. But others counter that the Central Bank doesn’t need to intervene, and they argue it should wait to see real data before acting. "The fundamentals are better than the stock market reflects," says Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Nationsbanc Montgomery Securities. The president also tried to do his part to calm the markets, citing the strong job market and balanced budget. "We believe our fundamental economic policy is sound," he said. His comments echoed statements by Treasury Secretary in Washington.
    Some numbers do continue to reflect a strong economy. On September 11, the Conference Board released its index of leading indicators. The index rose 0. 4 percent, promoting the business organization to predict that the nation’s output should increase at a moderate pace for the rest of this year. The group sees little risk of recession in the near term.
    But what has changed is the global economy. Japan and the rest of Asia are in recession. The woes are spreading to Latin America. "I’m convinced that we are going to have a global economic recession," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp. , a Minneapolis-based bank.
    Still, Fed watchers don’t think the Central Bank will act to try to save the world. "It’s inconceivable the Fed could make much difference in Asia, Russia, or Latin America," says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor.
    After the last stock market crash, the Federal Revenue acted quickly to provide liquidity to the markets and to lower interest rates. But the economy is in better shape this time. The banking sector is stronger and the financial markets have been able to respond to enormous trading volume.
It can be inferred from the text that________.
选项 A、US economy will go into recession in the near future
B、effective measures should be taken to boost US economic development
C、the government should continue its current policy
D、the Central Bank should play its role in the world economy
答案B
解析 本题是推断题。B项可以精确定位到文章第二段，该段谈到美国商品价格的急剧下跌，许多分析家对此做出了各种评论。再根据The Central Bank will have to act forcefully to arrest the deflationary forces(中央银行将必须采取有力措施来阻止会导致通货紧缩的各种因素的出现)和they argue it should wait to see real data before acting(他们认为央行应该等到看到真实数据后才采取行动)这两句话推测出B项为正确答案。A项讲的是美国经济不久将衰退，由文章第三段列举的数据可知，美国经济短期内不太可能出现衰退，选项与文章的意思正好相反，故排除；根据文章第二段第三句提到的While this may be good for consumers，it could cause a global slowdown(虽然这可能对消费者有利，但它可能导致全球经济衰退)可知，既然经济发展缓慢，就不能继续实行目前的政策，故排除C项；D项的干扰来自第五段首句，该句提到，Still，Fed watchers don’t think the Central Bank will act to try to save the world(不过，美联储的观察家们认为中央银行不会采取行动拯救世界经济)，选项与原文表述的意思相反，故排除。
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